This week, we were expecting the CPI data on Thursday. The Consumer Price Index or CPI is considered the most important indicator of inflation in the US. It measures the average change in prices for a basket of goods and services over a specific period of time.
The CPI data came out as expected, confirming that inflation was cooling off. The CPI for December was announced 6.5%, a much lower rate compared to the 7.1% November reading.
Now, the markets are expecting the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in the next month, instead of a 50 basis point rate hike.
In today’s DIFX Analytics, we’re going to look into the following assets:
Crude Oil
The reopening of China, the world’s biggest exporter, has pushed the asset higher. The increase in oil can encourage all commodities to see some growth.
Crude Oil is trading around $70-$80. We have confirmation of more upward movement as the asset moved above the 100-day EMA.
Oil is setting lower highs which shows it’s still in a long-term downtrend.
Bitcoin/US Dollar (BTC/USD)
After the CPI data and the fall of the Dollar, Bitcoin shortly crossed above $19,000.
RSI is strong and sitting around 80. As inflation slows down and the Dollar continues its fall, we can expect the asset to increase as well.
Swiss Franc/Japanese Yen (CHF/JPY)
CHF/JPY declined below the support level and is falling further. Just Recently, the Swiss National Bank reported its $143 billion annual loss for 2022, the largest in their 115-year history.
Coupled with a strong Yen, this has pushed CHF/JPY down. You can expect more decline until the $137.6 support.
Gold/US Dollar (XAU/USD)
After the CPI data, Gold touched $1900, however, was rejected. The asset is now trading around the $1896 level.
RSI is not strong yet, however, it is now outside the downward trend.
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Disclaimer
Crypto products are unregulated and could be highly volatile. Please be aware of the risks before investing.
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DIFX shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee, or implication by DIFX that the forecast information will eventuate, that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses in particular if the conditions or assumptions used for the forecast or mentioned in the analysis do not eventuate as anticipated and the forecast is not realized.
